venezuela

Almost invariably news reports about Venezuela include some statement about oil. It has been claimed and repeated ad nauseam without much evidence that the country has the "world's largest crude reserves". Consequently, when the U.S. Treasury relaxed some of the sanctions in mid October, a cacophony of oil and finance experts threw caution to the wind, declaring that the worst had passed and production would be ramped up. This clearly ignores the fact that Venezuela is not Saudi Arabia.

"Venezuela formally applies to BRICS"... "China welcomes Venezuela's intention to join BRICS"... "Brazil's Lula favors bid by Venezuela to join BRICS"... "Nations queue up to join BRICS, to promote 'multipolar world'"... "Maduro meets Dilma and says that “sooner or later Venezuela will be part of the BRICS”"... Venezuela joining BRICS is one of those questions of when rather than if.

An electoral event is rising on Venezuela's horizon: primaries that will determine the opposition's candidate. The main premise is that said opposition will present just one candidate against incumbent Nicolas Maduro in 2024's presidential elections. Maria Corina Machado is leading the primaries race. Manuel Rosales, Henrique Capriles, and others less known figures are also participating.

There is a tired debate regarding sanctions. Naturally both camps disregard data inconvenient to their stance. Proponents see sanctions as perfect non-violent measures that bring economic hardship to targets. Opponents see it as demonstrably inefficient tools that invariably end up punishing the wrong people. Both sides are simultaneously right and wrong. Cuba is the perfect case study. Years of U.S. sanctions have achieved precisely nothing against the dictators in power.

The Ukraine invasion and meeting between President Biden's officials and Nicolas Maduro in Caracas has awoken PDVSA experts. These days, every "Venezuela energy sector expert" talking to the media is making unsustainable remarks about its alleged capacity to fill the gap that sanctions on Russia's energy will create in the market. They talk about "spare capacity... ability to increase production to 600,000 barrels a day rapidly... release of millions of barrels held in the strategic reserve... Venezuela taking Russia's place in U.S.

The case of Cuba, and how decades of failed U.S. foreign policies never brought intended objective of dislodging that dictatorship, should be mandatory reading not only with all "customer-facing" State Department's diplomats, but with senior Congressmen, Senators and relevant American policy-making folk.

It really is hard to figure the calculus here: "The United States continues to recognize the authority of the democratically elected 2015 National Assembly as the last remaining democratic institution and Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s interim president.

Starbucks recently opened a shop in Caracas. It was an instant hit. Social media got inundated with the news, as sure sign that Venezuela is back on the mend. In other news, many sources report that Caracas looks different. There are bodegones (delis) popping all over the place. Restaurants and night clubs are filled with beautiful people. Some avenues in East Caracas are lit again, as part of a beautification effort launched by local authorities. The greenback is king... 

On 10 December this site revealed Roger Carsten's visit to Caracas:

@StateDept’s @StateSPEHA flew to Caracas aboard “Ebola plane” #N173PA to negotiate release of some political prisoners of @NicolasMaduro

When it comes to foreign policy blunders that can't be hidden from view, it doesn’t really matter who inhabits the White House: Venezuela is a source of endless embarrassment.