Venezuela dialogue in Norway...

"Norway commends the parties for their efforts. We reiterate our willingness to continue supporting the search for a peaceful solution for the country." That's part of the official statement. Can I ask the drafters of such idiotic platitudes, just how an unarmed opposition at the mercy of an all powerful State which is armed to the teeth, and supported by Colombian narco terrorists groups, Cuban intelligence, Russian military operatives, pranes and colectivos, is to seek anything but a peaceful solution? Let's just take that reasoning to the extreme: is there any publicly available evidence, anywhere, that the opposition to chavismo can mount a non-peaceful campaign to unseat Nicolas Maduro, which would warrant Norway's mediation among rival and equal parties?

The only party that has to renege the use of violence here, i.e. that can ensure peace, is the party that controls the guns and the army. Perhaps lofty Norwegians have missed who controls that in Venezuela. Norway was also involved in "peace negotiations" between Colombian narcoterrorists and the Colombian State. If they're seeing Venezuela as a repetition somewhat of that situation, utter failure is to be expected.

Venezuela's opposition is coming to that table with little more than some international support and the strenght of having a clear majority. It is not like in the case of Colombia, where narcoterrorist groups controlled large parts of that country, and were waging guerrilla warfare against the Colombian State for decades. Colombian narcoterrorists had another "advantage" that Venezuela's opposition does not have: money. Drug trafficking brought billions of dollars worth of income, which allowed for arms purchases, bribes to politicians, army, and law enforcement. At one point in history, Colombian narcoterrorist groups even have a president on its payroll, that's how much power they had in Colombia.

Where are the parallels in our case? What control has the opposition to force chavismo into anything? The card the opposition has, and the one it should play with abandon at least until it lasts, is the resolute support of the U.S. government, whose sanctions regime has caused no small amount of bother to chavismo. If I were advising Guaidó, I'd lobby for even more sanctions, at all levels and with global scope, against any and all parties dealing with chavismo. That's just about the only thing Venezuela's opposition can use against thugs sitting at the other end of the table.

Take CITGO, for instance. Nearly half of it was pledged to Rosneft. I'd ensure the CFIUS would veto what is effectively a Putin-controlled conglomerate from owning that stake. The Russian banks that had stakes in Evrofinance Mosnarbank ought to be included also in Venezuela-related sanctions. Nynas, in Sweden, should also be sanctioned given that PDVSA has the controlling majority.

With that sort of leverage and very peacefully indeed, the opposition could entertain entering Norway-promoted negotiations. Cuba, which was also an active part of Juan Manuel Santos's farcical process, is not a party that should be allowed at the table. If anything, the opposition should seek to increment sanctions against the Cuban regime. Let them suck Putin's teat and see how long that lasts.

We are of the opinion that without real leverage the talks are only going to serve Nicolas Maduro, as it's always the case. As in previous process, the real winners will be those responsible for the suffering of an entire nation.