What happened yesterday in sui generis Venezuela?

It started before dawn. Juan Guaido, flanked by Leopoldo Lopez, were around La Carlota (military airport in East Caracas). Guaido made calls to transition and the start of "Operación Libertad". Lopez shouldn't have been there. House arrest conditions under SEBIN's watch meant that his symbolic presence had -at the very least- been allowed by SEBIN higher beings. Guaido and Lopez were surrounded by army, which meant some level of support. They were there, right by La Carlota for hours, i.e. whatever military contingent based in La Carlota did not attack, seek arrests. Fuerte Tiuna, Caracas' largest army base, is about 10 minutes drive. Again, it would be hours, until skirmishes began.

Colectivos (thug gangs used by Nicolas Maduro to terrorise / dissolve opposition rallies) did not show up. For hours. La Carlota's entrance door was forced open by unarmed protesters. Palo Negro, the largest airforce base in Maracay, 84km as the crow flies, did not scramble any helicopters or airplanes. Miraflores, the Presidential Palace located 11km from La Carlota, was never under any sort of threat.

International media started banging about a "coup". Those of us who know Venezuela and its history for longer than a week have difficulty reconciling such ignorant version of events. By chance, while driving yesterday, I heard the BBC World Service speaking to two "experts", one in Sao Paulo and the other in Caracas. This being the BBC, the gist was of course the "hugely controversial" U.S. participation. Not one peep was said about China, Turkey, Cuba or Russia's recent deployment of military planes and forces in Venezuela. The fact that Guaido has the support of most Western democracies, including the UK, was not even mentioned.

As the day wore on, Guaido, Lopez and other congressmen were still in the vicinity of La Carlota, surrounded by army. The Wagner Group was nowhere to be seen. No opposition leader was kidnapped / disappeared / killed, ditto chavismo leaders. Diosdado Cabello was making some threats from Miraflores, while Lopez was talking to local media.

Access to social media was interrupted. RCR Radio, a Caracas based radio station that had broadcast uninterruptedly for 89 years had a visit from CONATEL, the telecoms watchdog, and summarily shut down. The BBC and other news channels were taken off cable TV. Eventually, access to internet was re-established so Maduro could address the country. He said army siding with Guaido "had been tricked" with false orders, a formula used by Chavez in 1992.

BREAKING: #Venezuela interim president @jguaido spoke to cameras early this AM, surrounded by army, from La Carlota, military controlled airport in Caracas. He made calls to transition. @leopoldolopez was standing right by his side, despite prohibition to leave house arrest... pic.twitter.com/yu6zVrSukB

— alek boyd (@alekboyd) April 30, 2019

The Western World's democracies, almost unanimously, made support statements towards Guaido, while the usual thugs from non democratic countries sided with Maduro.

Compare yesterday's events with Hugo Chavez's coup in 1992, when tanks were rammed into Miraflores' door. Heavy gunfights lasting hours left dozens dead, while then President Carlos Andres Perez managed to escape two assassination attempts. The one city that Hugo Chavez personally was responsible to take control of, Caracas, was the only one that successfully resisted and repelled the coup. Hugo Chavez, hiding in Museo Militar, would ultimately be arrested, and he surrendered through a nationwide broadcast which became famous ("por ahora" speech).

In a visit to Washington last week, I was informed that Vladimir Padrino had been talked into flipping, that he had agreed to it. Maikel Moreno, Raul Gorrin associate before Supreme Court Chief, was also part of negotiations. It is no secret that Gorrin has been -since at least last December- acting as negotiator between Maduro / Flores clan and the opposition. But as explained elsewhere, chavismo is not a homogenous criminal organization. It does not have a single thug dictating dogma.

Maduro / Flores might have agreed to leave. But what about Diosdado? Tareck el Aisami? What about Jorge and Delcy Rodriguez? Elias Jaua? How about pranes / colectivos / Iris Varela? Colombian narcoterrorists / Alex Saab / Piedad Cordoba / Alvaro Pulido Vargas? What of Cartel de los Soles army chiefs? Who's driving a wedge between Cuban intelligence control and Venezuelan army? Have Rosneft, Transneft, Gazprom, Gazprombank, VTB Bank, and Nynas been threatened with further sanctions? How about Swiss energy traders and banks?

Before subscribing to the preposterous notion that Putin forced Maduro to stay, ponder instead about potential and direct consequences to non-complying chavista clans that aren't part of transitional negotiations. For those are the ones keeping Maduro in power.

What yesterday's events did show is that nothing is what it seems in Venezuela. A "coup" that's not a coup. Allegiances that fail to materialize. Revolutions in which the gravest, most abominable actions are not mass graves, decapitated bodies hanging from bridges, or gassing opponents, but one armoured vehicle running over a handful of protesters. American interventions with no boots on the ground. Embargoes that are circumvented 57 different ways. Wide support for opposition leadership and universal condemnation towards status quo that does not get mentioned by reporting media...

In sui generis Venezuela, the "coup" leader went to sleep at home. Lopez, having fled house arrest, went to the Chilean Embassy first, and then decided to seek diplomatic refuge from Spain's Embassy instead. No mass arrests a la Erdogan. No Beslan style siege. No por ahora speeches. Today, the "coup" starts again. Let's just see whether it fits the definition. Don't expect international media reports to provide any accuracy or nuance about the situation. Go to social media, ask a Venezuelan.