nicolas maduro

With the presence of representatives from the European Union, the U.S., Latin American governments, and (some) Venezuelan opposition figures, the regime led by Nicolas Maduro agreed this week in Barbados to a "set of electoral guarantees" for the "upcoming presidential election" in the second semester of 2024. Maduro also submitted to electoral observers from the EU, U.N., African Union, and Carter Centre, and, crucially, agreed to audits of the electoral system.

Think about it: sanctions are just the perfect justification. There's nothing quite so flexible, encompassing and revolutionary as being the target of U.S. Treasury sanctions. Everything can be explained under the purview of sanctions. Lack of food? Unemployment? No gasoline? Derelict hospitals and crumbling infrastructure? Malnutrition? Teachers striking? Power cuts? All of that, and more, happens because of sanctions. Like the Cuban dictatorship, chavismo has not lost, but reaffirmed the credibility of its now 24 year old criminal regime thanks to sanctions.

There's all this talk about how the Biden administration is working on a plan to ease sanctions on Venezuela. Coupled with the "scoop" about Jorge Rodriguez and U.S. National Security Council's Juan Gonzalez having met in different parts of the world, for back channel negotiations, it has driven the commentariat to conclude that Venezuela is about to add hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil per day to the market, which ultimately caused a (momentary) drop in prices.

U.S. government officials Juan Gonzalez, Jimmy Story and Roger Carstens officially traveled to Venezuela over the weekend for talks with Nicolas Maduro. Carstens had already been to Caracas in early December to discuss the CITGO 6. People seem surprised by what they perceive as a change of heart at the White House, ignoring that Carsten and Bill Richardson had already visited Maduro (unofficially).

The problem with Venezuela is which of its realities should be prioritised. It is a country "governed" by a group of people who have a fluid stance with a kind of criminality that would make any government subject to rule of law and independence of institutions collapse. Chavismo's relationship with Colombia's narco terrorist groups (FARC, ELN, etc.) is well documented. Hugo Chavez himself was vociferous about his sympathies with the enemies of the Colombian State, and his successor is not different.

A well known trope in Venezuela is that Hugo Chavez was the most charismatic politician, and that Nicolas Maduro was just the loyal fool handpicked to continue the "Bolivarian Revolution". When Chavez's death was announced, nobody gave Maduro much of a chance. The thinking was that he was no Chavez, that he didn't have what it took. Maduro has been massively underestimated. For years. Yet he can easily claim to be the shrewdest, more so than even Chavez, whose time in power was aided by the largest oil windfall ever received.

Dear Department of Justice,

Further to your recent superseding indictment against Nicolas Maduro and his criminal associates, I want to help with information that could lead to their arrests. Fact is, only those within a rather small circle keep in regular contact with Maduro and co, and know of their whereabouts. To members of that circle $15 million is, beyond an insult, pocket change.